I'm still quite young, preparing to complete my college degree in the coming months.
I have a nagging suspicion that poker, especially the cash games, might ultimately lead to my downfall both financially and personally. It seems it's just a matter of time; I'm estimating it could happen within the next 10 to 15 years when I have a substantial income.
While tournaments might not be as financially damaging at first glance, they're also risky. The prize distribution is heavily skewed towards the top 1%, and in the hundreds of tournaments I have participated in, my winnings have totaled 20% less than the amount I've spent to enter.
Navigating poker feels like one of the toughest challenges I've faced, with seemingly no straightforward way to succeed. You could rack up a profit of 500 big blinds in a few days? That's a dream. Losing that amount in the same timeframe? Very possible. I often end up losing in almost every segment, unable to make a temporary profit. It's like the opponents can read my every move, sniffing out my strong hands, and either folding quickly with minimal loss or outplaying me to sweep up my chips, leaving me broke. You're left with small wins or colossal losses. It's not a great bargain. Almost like the casino invites you back for another deposit, doesn't it?
When it comes to fairness, unless there's some sort of verifiable fair system in place, similar to those in crypto casinos with transparent mechanisms, I'll never fully trust any online gambling site. I have about 70% confidence in them at best. They make everything look normal in terms of statistics, but just a few bad decisions can wipe out any prior gains.
I suspect there are automated players or 'bots' involved in online poker. These aren't overt, cheating bots that know everyone's cards, but rather what I call 'Punisher Bots'. If the system judges your play as weak or notices poor decisions, these bots likely kick in to exploit your weaknesses, draining your funds in the process.
Perhaps it's my fault for being naive. A few years back, my parents had me take an IQ test, and the results showed me in the top 10% of smartest individuals. I believed this for years, but now I have doubts, thinking they may have paid for a flattering outcome.
To date, I've never actually played poker. I only know some theoretical aspects about card games. All forms of gambling pose risks to your health and finances if they become habitual. It would be wise for you to consider taking a hiatus from poker.
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Hi @hxlohar My losses from poker are minor compared to those from slot machines. I mainly engage in tournaments with buy-ins of $5 to $10, and occasionally play cash games with small blinds, yet the experience feels significantly more unpleasant.
Think of this scenario: you go all-in preflop with both players staking $100 and each having a 50% chance to win. Ignoring fees, there's a 50% chance of winning $100 and feeling thrilled and a 50% chance of losing and feeling dejected, making your total expected value neutral and leaving you dissatisfied.
I've read accounts of gamblers being devastated by slots—or, in some cultures, baccarat, lotteries, and sports betting. Yet, tales of such ruin from poker haven't reached me, although I bet they're out there.
If skilled professionals make millions from poker, there must be countless others, like me, financing their winnings. It’s not unusual to hear about players hitting financial rock bottom, liquidating assets, maxing out credit, pleading with friends for loans, or resorting to loans with outrageous interest, all in a quest to fund another shot at the tables.
Poker demands a sharp, calculated mindset. There's a seasoned mathematician from Estonia who recently cashed in significantly in last month's games, and even he claims to be a newcomer to poker.
There's a newcomer to the world of poker who's quickly gaining fame; Gambledore might very well become a billionaire shortly.
Psychology and the ability to read people are equally crucial in poker. Without these skills, mathematical strategies alone fall short.
Numbers.
Assuming equal strength and luck for all hands, my expected win rate should be approximately 45.10%.
Total runs: 419
Total opponents: 510
So average of 1.2172 opponent per run.
However, the actual results show that I've managed 173.50 wins, where a draw is counted as half a win.
Actual scenario:
My total EV is 193.2562 wins (Equity being 46.1232%).
Naturally, I've documented the expected outcomes for every card match-up as well, taking into account the suits.
Question: Where am I?
I've used ChatGPT to simulate a million poker rounds, comparing my results against these simulations.
KQ:KK:TT:JJ: 5.38% win, 0.68% draw
AQs:77:99:22: 53.23% win, 0.49% draw
AK:AQ:AJs: 50.06% win, 3.77% draw
QQ:KK:ATs: 17.78% win, 0.40% draw
In the data file, my results at 173.5 wins fall between 98.4685% and 98.6705%, meaning they're unusually lucky.
Avg: 193.3
Median: 193.5
Best: 238.5
Worst: 151.0
Top 1 %: 214.5
Top 2 %: 212.0
Top 5 %: 208.0
Top 10 %: 205.0
Top 25 %: 199.5
Top 50 %: 193.5
Top 75 %: 187.0
Top 90 %: 181.5
Top 95 %: 178.5
Top 98 %: 174.5
Top 99 %: 172.5
What's the likelihood of being in the bottom 2%? I suspect it's a 2% probability, or 1 in 50 chance.
In tournament play, when chip stacks dwindle, options for bluffing are scarce, and going all-in pre-flop is often unavoidable.
Yet, based on my outcomes, the platform (which I'll leave unnamed) that I use doesn't inspire full confidence.
Interestingly, this platform also offers slots, including seemingly legitimate NLC games. I've had noteworthy wins on these with multipliers, yet I face unusually poor luck in their $5-$15 tournaments.
The hardships continue as you can struggle with tournaments where the reward programs are more focused on your contribution to their rake income.
Operating a casino within Mainland China is against the law.
Another problem I have:
Many casinos refuse business with Chinese players due to legal or licensing constraints.
Does anyone have a recommendation for a reliable poker site that allows Chinese players and offers tournaments? I struggle with cash games.
The poker site I use feels as reliable as a 96% payout rate—perhaps not the best analogy, but you get the idea.
Use a wrong example here:
Some individuals might fully trust these platforms, while others, like myself, remain skeptical.
Yes, I'm constantly questioning things like return-to-player statistics as well.
Viewer's discretion is advised.
My results at 216.5 falls within the impressive top 99.4922% to 99.5582%.
same here but its fun to look at
Some updates.
I\"m almost done.
Feb 7th
in 522 preflop all in, my luck has gone worse!
Simulation Results:
Avg: 242.7
Median: 242.5
Best: 290.0
Worst: 195.5
...
On the downside, my results at 216.5 places me in the bottom 0.5078% to 0.4418%, something to ponder.
(Opposite direction)
Once my balance dwindles to its final $30, that's when I plan to walk away.
Now I\"m doing REALLY BAD.
The platform isn't licensed by the Malta Gaming Authority or Curacao but has a Philippine license. Many questionable operations seem to opt for licensing from places like the Philippines or the Isle of Man.
It\"s ridiculously funny.
It's been a rough day; as tends to happen, most hands either conclude with minor wins or significant losses.
Feb 8th
It went great, I ran my $30 up to $150.
Feb 9th
As previously mentioned, I have my suspicions about the existence of 'Punisher Bots' that target players in a tilt.
I suspect that some servers intentionally introduce instability, leading to disconnections that can exacerbate a player's tilt, which I've experienced firsthand.
Experiencing a 'cooler' where you're outdone by a higher hand like a full house after achieving a high flush.
And I got punished:
Consistently, luck seems adverse both before and after the flop, evidenced by my dropping 3-bet rates.
In a cash drop event (where the pot starts at 10 big blinds), my strategy included going all-in with top-tier hands and limping with others, but the result wasn't favorable.
The odd occurrence of three players landing top 5% hands simultaneously is rarer than it seems.
Plus others.
Math:
This unusual event took place during a cash drop scenario, something that only occurs once in every 300 games.
Forget the math for a moment. I have reservations about this casino anyway, and odds seem moot.
I'm abstaining from depositing more until February 21st. While I've managed to multiply $30 to $150, which is a glimmer of hope for me, I've resolved to hone my skills further before investing again.
A successful outcome would be if this $100 sees a rise up to $250 at any point, prompting me to continue.
2 possible outcomes:
Should I not meet my goal, I'll walk away from this platform for good, regardless of any version—Chinese, Asian, or global.
Collaborating with reputable casinos or poker games among friends is still on the table for me.